Seeing the closure of Finance in the U.S., I think many people are closing their shorts, but I need to call the bottom and get ready to ride the rally? I for one still cautious, I still think there is a bump or two in advance. Yes, I believe the banks will lead the way, but 'all' bad news, yet? Not only that, but I think that the market turns on sixpence. We saw a 5% rise and fall within a few weeks on all stock exchanges in the world. Nobody anywhere has any idea whether this is a brief respite from the start of a bear market or bull market.
...Another point, the government interfering with markets, changes in accounting practices, changes in VAT, the injection of money, etc. .. It only takes one of the announcements of some ministers, and leaks from civil servantsvolatility the sector . Unlike RNs, when you have an idea why the sector is moving the way it is interference causing sudden lurches, and you do not want to be on the wrong side of them.
The other day I heard that Anthony Bolton, one of Britain's most famous mutual fund managers called the market bottom, as it did several months ago and several months before that. a very expensive mistake to make. In fact, sometimes people who are always wrong are equally as valuable as some people who are always right.
Many years ago, a news editor I knew the film has developed an incredibly consistent talent - to be wrong. Whenever a tricky borderline editorial decisions that are in the room to cut, the producers only had to ask him what his advice was, and knew immediately that we should do the opposite.
Today, the Telegraph asked "Is this a recovery or Sucker's Rally?" and receive comments from assorted associates. So the question for our readers who has not got it right - but who's got it wrong
?the choice is between the UK fund manager Anthony Bolton (new bull market began), Edward Bonham (it's got a further fall), Tim Steer (we're just about there), Gary White (it's a bear market rally) Paul Kavanagh at Killick and Co-operation (we could go beyond 4000, but not the bottom yet - it will be another year yet, etc etc ).
... Remember that a guy with a track record of consistently making the wrong call, which is one whose advice should be heeded ... and vice versa :-)
... Remember that a guy with a track record of consistently making the wrong call, which is one whose advice should be heeded ... and vice versa :-)
...I've never heard of Gary White.
fund manager Tim Steer is much better than more than 5 years before Christ, -4.5%, but he did worse than 1 years -43%. Incorrect factor: high
Bolton called the bottom in October. He is no longer a fund manager, but the contrarian. I believe that the call to contrarian to say that this is a new rally. Incorrect factor: good, but not lately
.Paul Killick has nothing to say that I've ever wanted to hear. Incorrect factor: so high off the scale
.the question is who's got it wrong often. On my most basic analysis, and not knowing who is Gary White would say it's a toss up between Paul Killick and Tim Cox.
Steer says we are about there and Killick says it can go up, but it might go down.
So where does this leave us? LOL.
I do not see the point in the debate when the bottom is in. It takes about six months after the bottom for the market to confirm the real bottom is left behind. At that time the market will have risen by about 25-30% of the bottom and the only contrarians will catch him. But they will probably have caught the loss compared to previous occasions, and if it turns out to be false were set could be wrong again.
can be purchased at the oversold or wait for more senior and high-low breakout. You can choose a pair of moving averages, or follow a technical indicator. No one strategy is right or wrong. They just correspond to different individuals emotions and risk profiles. When one of us selling more than we bought. When one of us takes a small profit since we were jumping in to what we hope is at an early stage of the trend. The easiest way to lose money do not have a clear strategy with discipline - when to buy, when to sell and how much to risk
.The only thing I can do to make sure that I do not draw a white line, and say that the market has bottomed, because, unlike the UK fund manager Anthony Bolton, I'm using my own money and I do not I love to lose it!
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